The Alternative Energy Tipping Point - Is it Here, Will it Happen?
The title of this article asks a somewhat pointed question that perhaps cannot be answered. How would we define that alternative energy has tipped? Do we define it as a topic - everyone is talking about it - or do we define it as something else - everyone is using it, for example?
The very idea that the title of this article suggests may seem a bit geographically arrogant. How could a concept like the use of alternative energy sources, with its global scope, be considered to tip at a given moment? Perhaps, then, this question is too far reaching?
That may be so, but even if it is, there are cues all around us that this resurgence of popularity may be different then the last - that alternative fuel has hit the mainstream and can be considered to have tipped.
When is something considered mainstream?
Quite simply, the rising price of oil affects the majority of the people on this planet. And since alternative energy sources like biofuels, nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal power are, well, the alternative to petroleum based fuel, it is clear that alternative energy is a global topic.
So will we be able to look back in history and say "that was the straw that broke the camel's back, that was the tipping point for the world to migrate to a more balanced energy consumption?".
Recent events could be construed to be indicators that a tip is near:
- big alternative energy IPOs
- companies buying their power via wind credits
- events that are forcing us to reconsider our energy plans (more)
- states plotting to be at the top of the alternative energy game, to be leaders and set an example
- the increasing size of the hybrid market offering in the oil thirsty United States
- countries aiming to end oil dependance
- the Times-Online tells us that
Renewable energy stocks were soaring even before the US president’s State of the Union address
. - the United Nations pushing for alternative energy
Something quite significant to note as well is that the high prices we are seeing these days aren't a result of taps being closed to run up prices, they are a result of consumption (with a little help from wars past and from mother nature). This is a bit of a scary thought.
Some of the following quips from the media are also telling:In the past, the wind industry has soared or swooped depending on whether Congress renewed the wind-energy production tax credit, as it did last fall. But amid the current boom, some say it won't be long until the industry is ready to stand on its own.
Sure, there may not be a long-term petroleum based energy shortage as some would say - given Alberta's tar-sands as an example - however the cost-per-barrel of this product from Canada isn't cheap, and we know that economics is part of the reason driving the new alternative energy excitement.
A coalescense of factors
What is striking about the current situation is that there are a number of possible factors working in favor of pushing alternative energies into the mainstream.
Imagine a scenario of high oil prices coming together with a political wake up call about the status of many countries' energy supplies. Not too difficult, because it has happened. Now imagine that governements increase the amount of funding in alternative energy research and that we start seeing headlines like U.S. Wind Industry Ends Most Productive Year, Sustained Growth Expected For At Least Next Two Years and Prince Edward Island to go 100% renewable. These are all positive signs on their own, but taken together and it could be enough to push things over the top.
It may be tricky to pin-point exact events, due to its global nature, but whatever happens it should be interesting to see the how it all unfolds. I can't say if the recent politics and economics will cause a tip and a permanent change, but it seems that many forces are coming together to make it happen.
I'd say we have three years before we reach the tipping point. Three years, one month, and seven days to be precise.
I think there should be money involved in this one. Care to wager ;-)?
you know you're pretty darn close when the VCs are clamouring to invest in the stuff-- still it would have to be on the mavens (done) and early adaptors roofs before we get there, no? isn't it like we haveto get to the point where isaac mizrahi is wearing hush puppies or something??
An example... VCs are clamouring to invest in the stuff
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